METHODOLOGY
Narrative Detection.
How we identify emerging crypto narratives before they become mainstream through real-time social listening and on-chain signal aggregation.
MODELED SCOREAI-assisted classification · Social + capital composite · v1.4
NARRATIVE HEAT SCORE
Heat = (Social × 30%) + (Capital × 25%) + (Alpha × 20%) +
(SmartMoney × 15%) + (Articles × 10%)
(SmartMoney × 15%) + (Articles × 10%)
Range: 0–100 (higher = narrative gaining momentum)
≥70: Very Hot · 50–69: Heating Up · 30–49: Emerging · ‹30: Dormant
≥70: Very Hot · 50–69: Heating Up · 30–49: Emerging · ‹30: Dormant
DETECTION PIPELINE
1. SIGNALS
NarrativeSignal detects keyword clusters on Twitter, Reddit, news, GitHub, and token volume spikes
2. CLASSIFY
LLM categorizes each signal: is this a genuine narrative or noise? Output: narrative_guess + confidence
3. AGGREGATE
NarrativeHeatSnapshot pulls all related signals + smart money + alpha alignment, calculates 0–100 heat score
4. DETECT ROTATION
NarrativeRotation identifies capital flowing from declining → rising narratives. Output: rotation strength + evidence
DATA SOURCES
Social Listening (30%)Twitter + Reddit mention velocity
Discord community growth
Influencer activity & sentiment
Discord community growth
Influencer activity & sentiment
Capital Flow (25%)Smart wallet moves → tokens
Whale transaction patterns
DEX volume concentration
Whale transaction patterns
DEX volume concentration
Alpha Signals (20%)Token score correlation
Narrative-tagged alpha signals
Breakout detection
Narrative-tagged alpha signals
Breakout detection
Smart Money (15%)VC wallet holdings
Protocol treasury buys
Exchange inflow/outflow
Protocol treasury buys
Exchange inflow/outflow
Publishing (10%)Research articles tagged to narrative
CryptoNerd content + external media coverage
Publishing frequency trend
CryptoNerd content + external media coverage
Publishing frequency trend
EXAMPLE: AI AGENTS ON-CHAIN
Day 1 (Heat: 15): Tweet about "agents on Solana" goes semi-viral. NarrativeSignal detects keyword cluster: "agents", "AI", "autonomous trading", "Solana". Confidence: 45% (could be noise).
Day 3 (Heat: 35): Multicoin Capital moves $2M into AI agent projects. SmartMoney signal detected. Articles start dropping: "Why AI Agents Are Next" on CoinTelegraph. NarrativeHeatSnapshot increases heat to 35.
Day 7 (Heat: 62): Reddit /r/crypto discussion 3x. Twitter mentions +180% vs baseline. Alpha Scanner shows 5 AI-tagged tokens ranking ≥75. Capital velocity increases. Heat → 62 ("Heating Up" tier).
Day 14 (Heat: 78): Full thesis published on CryptoNerd. WhaleSignal shows sustained accumulation. Narrative gains "active" status. Heat peaks at 78 → Featured on Narrative Heatmap.
Day 3 (Heat: 35): Multicoin Capital moves $2M into AI agent projects. SmartMoney signal detected. Articles start dropping: "Why AI Agents Are Next" on CoinTelegraph. NarrativeHeatSnapshot increases heat to 35.
Day 7 (Heat: 62): Reddit /r/crypto discussion 3x. Twitter mentions +180% vs baseline. Alpha Scanner shows 5 AI-tagged tokens ranking ≥75. Capital velocity increases. Heat → 62 ("Heating Up" tier).
Day 14 (Heat: 78): Full thesis published on CryptoNerd. WhaleSignal shows sustained accumulation. Narrative gains "active" status. Heat peaks at 78 → Featured on Narrative Heatmap.
LIMITATIONS & DISCLAIMERS
- Narrative detection is AI-inferred; may confuse coordinated marketing for organic trends.
- Heat score reflects social momentum, not investment thesis quality.
- Narratives can collapse quickly due to regulation or exploit events.
- We cannot predict which narratives will ultimately drive returns.
- This is not financial advice. Use narratives as context, not prediction.